Kevin Rudd's fatal flaw

Kevin Rudd is no longer Prime Minister of Australia.  Today a precedent is set - the Labor Party has chosen pragmatism over principle by knifing a first-term prime minister after a short period of unpopularity.  Julia Gillard's willingness to put ambition over loyalty starts her prime ministership on a sour note.  Gillard has said that the main cause of the challenge is that she disagreed with Rudd on the direction of the government.  This precedent says to Labor Prime Ministers in the future - do not expect loyalty from your colleagues, expect self-interest.  If the polls start dipping, you will be knifed by your own party.  Expect "Yes Minister"-style risk aversion.

Kevin Rudd stumbled on the following:

Mining tax - good idea that incredibly has been hijacked by the mining industry.  The miners have successfully run a scare campaign that rivals that of the GST.  It boils down to whether Australia's rich men of mining (think Clive Palmer and Andrew Forrest), will give up a few billion dollars for the good of the country.  Their extreme wealth comes primarily from luck - the fact that mineral prices have gone up exponentially in the last ten years.  The huge amount of advertising by the miners forced the government to fund its own advertising - seen as a loss of faith given Rudd's earlier strong commitments against government advertising.

Climate change - Rudd spoke too forcefully and committed too much in anticipation of decisions being made at the Copenhagen summit.  Even though it was other parties (including the Greens) that voted down the climate change plan,  Rudd's subsequent postponement was seen as a loss of faith by the public.

Kevin Rudd has been a lightning rod for criticism of the government, while Julia Gillard was built up by the media as an alternative.  But remember that the media has been fickle towards female politicians in the past (think Lawrence, Kirner and particularly Kernot).  I predict that Labor will win the next election, but will find it hard in the next term.  After consideration, Gillard's participation in this coup will be looked on with disdain by the public and media.  Gillard should not expect any loyalty if polls turn against her.